A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach
This paper develops an estimated hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4. Based on a recursive esti...
متن کاملVARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting
In this paper, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real macroeconomic data and show that VARMA models forecast macroeconomic variables more accurately than VAR models.
متن کاملDSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification
The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretical consistent identification strategy using restrictions implied by a DSGE model. Monte Carlo simulations suggest the proposed identification strategy is succ...
متن کاملThe Impact of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from a DSGE Model
The purpose of this article is to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy in Iran using a new-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model takes into account distortionary taxations on wage, dividend, and consumption, while government expenditures are broken down into consumption of goods and services, and investment. The model is calibrated for Iran based...
متن کاملThe Effect of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of New Keynesian DSGE Model
One of the important issues that have been the focus of economists in developed and developing countries for the last several decades is the study of the effect of External Shocks on macroeconomic variables of those countries.In this paper In order to investigate the effect of external shocks including world oil price, exchange rate and global inflation shocks on macroeconomic variables of Ira...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Modelling
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.012